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Fuel and restoration treatments seeking to mitigate the likelihood of uncharacteristic high‐severity wildfires in forests with historically frequent, low‐severity fire regimes are increasingly common, but long‐term treatment effects on fuels, aboveground carbon, plant community structure, ecosystem resilience, and other ecosystem attributes are understudied. We present 20‐year responses to thinning and prescribed burning treatments commonly used in dry, low‐elevation forests of the western United States from a long‐term study site in the Northern Rockies that is part of the National Fire and Fire Surrogate Study. We provide a comprehensive synthesis of short‐term (<4 years) and mid‐term (<14 years) results from previous findings. We then place these results in the context of a mountain pine beetle (MPB;Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak that impacted the site 5–10 years post‐treatment and describe 20‐year responses to assess the longevity of restoration and fuel reduction treatments in light of the MPB outbreak. Thinning treatments had persistently lower forest density and higher tree growth, but effects were more pronounced when thinning was combined with prescribed fire. The thinning+prescribed fire treatment had the additional benefit of maintaining the highest proportion of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) for overstory and regeneration. No differences in understory native plant cover and richness or exotic species cover remained after 20 years, but exotic species richness, while low relative to native species, was still higher in the thinning+prescribed fire treatment than the control. Aboveground live carbon stocks in thinning treatments recovered to near control and prescribed fire treatment levels by 20 years. The prescribed fire treatment and control had higher fuel loads than thinning treatments due to interactions with the MPB outbreak. The MPB‐induced changes to forest structure and fuels increased the fire hazard 20 years post‐treatment in the control and prescribed fire treatment. Should a wildfire occur now, the thinning+prescribed fire treatment would likely have the lowest intensity fire and highest tree survival and stable carbon stocks. Our findings show broad support that thinning and prescribed fire increase ponderosa pine forest resilience to both wildfire and bark beetles for up to 20 years, but efficacy is waning and additional fuel treatments are needed to maintain resilience.

 

Introduction Tree defense characteristics play a crucial role in modulating conifer bark beetle interactions, and there is a growing body of literature investigating factors mediating tree growth and resin-based defenses in conifers. A subset of studies have looked at relationships between tree growth, resin duct morphology and climate; however, these studies are almost exclusively from lower-elevation, moisture-limited systems. The relationship between resin ducts and climate in higher-elevation, energy-limited ecosystems is currently poorly understood. Methods In this study, we: (1) evaluated the relationship between biological trends in tree growth, resin duct anatomy, and climatic variability and (2) determined if tree growth and resin duct morphology of whitebark pine, a high-elevation conifer of management concern, is constrained by climate and/or regional drought conditions. Results We found that high-elevation whitebark pine trees growing in an energy-limited system experienced increased growth and defense under warmer and regionally drier conditions, with climate variables explaining a substantive proportion of variation (∼20–31%) in tree diameter growth and resin duct anatomy. Discussion Our results suggest that whitebark pine growth and defense was historically limited by short growing seasons in high-elevation environments; however, this relationship may change in the future with prolonged warming conditions. 

Climate warming in recent decades has negatively impacted forest health in the western United States. Here, we report on potential early warning signals (EWS) for drought‐related mortality derived from measurements of tree‐ring growth (ring width index; RWI) and carbon isotope discrimination (∆¹³C), primarily focused on ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). Sampling was conducted in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, near the epicenter of drought severity and mortality associated with the 2012–2015 California drought and concurrent outbreak of western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis). At this site, we found that widespread mortality was presaged by five decades of increasing sensitivity (i.e., increased explained variation) of both tree growth and ∆¹³C to Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We hypothesized that increasing sensitivity of tree growth and ∆¹³C to hydroclimate constitute EWS that indicate an increased likelihood of widespread forest mortality caused by direct and indirect effects of drought. We then tested these EWS in additional ponderosa pine‐dominated forests that experienced varying mortality rates associated with the same California drought event. In general, drier sites showed increasing sensitivity of RWI to PDSI over the last century, as well as higher mortality following the California drought event compared to wetter sites. Two sites displayed evidence that thinning or fire events that reduced stand basal area effectively reversed the trend of increasing hydroclimate sensitivity. These comparisons indicate that reducing competition for soil water and/or decreasing bark beetle host tree density via forest management—particularly in drier regions—may buffer these forests against drought stress and associated mortality risk. EWS such as these could provide land managers more time to mitigate the extent or severity of forest mortality in advance of droughts. Substantial efforts at deploying additional dendrochronological research in concert with remote sensing and forest modeling will aid in forecasting of forest responses to continued climate warming.